THE APPLICATIONS OF DISCOUNT CASH FLOW, ABNORMAL EARNING, AND RELATIVE VALUATION APPROACH” (Firm Intrinsic Value Analysis Pada Perusahaan BUMN)
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Date
2014-05-08
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Seminar Nasional Kewirausahaan dan Inovasi Bisnis IV, Universitas Tarumanagara
Abstract
The purpose of this research is to analyze the intrinsic value of PT. Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk. by using three different methods, namely discounted cash flow (DCF) techniques, abnormal earning and relative valuation, and to compare these calculations result, as well as to calculate the deviation of those three methods. Thus, the hypotheses are: (1) Each of the firm intrinsic value measurement method that we use will give different calculation results; (2) There is a relation between changes of firm intrinsic value with the changes of company market value.
This research is using secondary data, such as the financial reports of PT. Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk. from the period of 2008 to 2012 and other information related with the topic of research. The result of the research shows that the company intrinsic value turns out to be lower than the company market value, which means that the common stock price per share of PT. Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk. has been on “overvalued” position. Meanwhile the result of deviation calculation using the mean signed prediction error (MSPE) method showed that the abnormal earning method is able to give lower deviation level if compared with DDM and P/E methods. Statistical analysis using T-test two tailed shows that there are significant difference in calculation resulted by all of these methods. Correlation analysis result using the linier regression on the SPSS program show that the correlation between the company’s actual market price and the company’s intrinsic value not happened for all of these methods.
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Keywords
DCF, Abnormal Earning, Relative Valuation, Common Stock Price