FORECASTING INDONESIA’S ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA USING ARIMA MODEL
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Date
2020
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International Journal of Psychosocial Rehabilitation, Vol.24, Issue 02
Abstract
Precise electricity consumption predictions play an important role in managing electricity and in
developing the economy. Forecasting electricity usage therefore is imperative. This study examined the per capita
electricity consumption of Indonesia in order to find the appropriate ARIMA model for the variable estimate. The
data series used electricity consumption per capita in Indonesia from 1980 to 2014.In the assignment of appropriate
(p, d, q) values in ARIMA, the parameters for ACF and PACF were taken into account as well as stationary data.
The optimal model is then determined by selecting the one with the lowest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the
Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).
The simulation findings showed that the ARIMA (1,1,0) model was statistically suitable to predict electricity
consumption per capita in Indonesia.
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Keywords
ARIMA, Forecasting, Electricity Consumption, Indonesia