Browsing by Author "Laksono, R. Roosaleh"

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    ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI SUKU BUNGA PINJAMAN BANK UMUM DI INDONESIA MELALUI PENDEKATAN KOINTEGRASI DAN ERROR CORRECTION MODEL (ECM)
    (Seminar Nasional Akuntansi dan Bisnis (SNAB), Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Widyatama, 2017-07-20) Laksono, R. Roosaleh
    Penelitian ini untuk mengetahui berapa besar pengaruh GDP, inflasi dan uang beredar (M2) terhadap suku bungan pinjaman, selain itu untuk mengetahui apakah terjadi hubungan keseimbangan (equilibrium) antara variable bebas dan variable tak bebas pada model penelitian tersebut baik jangka panjang maupun jangka pendek dengan menggunakan metoda kointegrasi dan error correction model (ECM). Hasil penelitian yang telah dilakukan dimana faktor uang beredar (M2) terjadi hubungan positif (berbanding lurus) terhadap suku bunga, artinya jika terlalu banyak uang yang berdar dimasyarakat maka suku bunga akan dinaikan. Sedangkan faktor inflasi dan GDP sebaliknya mempunyai hubungan negative (berbanding terbalik) terhadap suku bunga, artinya jika pendapatan nasional suatu negara akan ditingkatkan dan inflasi meningkat maka suku bunga akan diturunkan. Hubungan keseimbangan jangka panjang antara variable bebas terhadap variable tak bebas menggunakan metoda kointegrasi dengan uji Johansen Cointegration menunjukan bahwa nilai trace statistic sebesar 70.59768 jauh lebih besar dari nilai kritis (5%) 47.85613 dan hasil dari Maximum Eigenvalue Statistic yaitu sebesar 43.19204 lebih besar dari nilai kritis 5%. Sebesar 27.58434, hasil ini dapat simpulkan bahwa telah terjadi hubungsan kesetimbangan (equilibrium) antara GDP, inflasi dan uang beredar (M2) sebagai variable bebas terhadap suku bunga dalam jangka panjang (long run). Dengan demikian persamaan regresi berganda model penelitian tidak lagi mengandung masalah regresi palsu (spurious regression). Sementara dari hasil dari uji error correction model (ECM) bahwa nilai lag of residual adalah negative yaitu sebesar -0.603461, hal ini menunjukan error correction term adalah sebesar 60,34% dan significant.Selain itu hasil dari masing-masing variable bebas (secara parsial) menunjukan semua tidak signifikan terhadap suku bunga, kecuali residual menunjukan signifikan. Hasil ini berarti bahwa variable-variabel bebas tersebut tidak mempunyai hubungan keseimbangan jangka pendek terhadap suku bunga, akan tetapi secara simultan semua variable bebas tersebut yaitu GDP, inflasi dan uang beredar mempunyai pengaruh terhadap suku bungan dalam jangka pendek.
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    ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF AMERICAN MONEY (M2), INTEREST RATE, GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE AND REAL EXCHANGE RATE ON INFLATION LEVEL IN INDONESIA COINTEGRATION APPROACH AND ERROR CORRECTION METHOD (ECM)
    (Journal of Advanced Research in Dynamical & Control Systems, Vol. 11, 03-Special Issue, 2019) Laksono, R. Roosaleh
    Inflation is often used as an indicator of a country's economic stability so that the rate of movement must always be sought at a low and stable level. The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of the money supply (M2), interest rates, government spending and the real exchange rate on the inflation rate in Indonesia in the short and long term. This study uses Error Correction Model (ECM) to analyze multivariate time series data that are non-stationary but co-integration occurs between the variables used in the study. The test results showed that the interpretation of the results of co-integration tests and error-correction methods showed that all independent variables had a significant short-run and long-run equilibrium relationship to the dependent variable. There is a positive relationship between expenditure, interest rate and exchange rate against inflation. But on the contrary there is a negative relationship between the money supply and inflation. This is not in line with the existing theory, there is a research gap and this needs further research on this issue.
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    ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF MACRO ECONOMIC FACTORS ON INDONESIAN EXPORT VALUE FLUCTUATION (Empirical Data in Period: 1990 To 2018)
    (International Journal of Psychosocial Rehabilitation, Vol.24, Issue 02, 2020) Laksono, R. Roosaleh; Saudi, Mohd Haizam Mohd
    Export is a source of foreign exchange of a country that must be considered and sought as much as possible and as widely as possible by the government. This study aims to determine whether macroeconomic factors, especially the real exchange rate (rupiah against the USD), investment and inflation affect the value of exports in Indonesia, both long-term and short-term during the period 1990 to 2018. Research previously produced has gone through several stages of statistical testing. The results of research that have been done show that there has been an equilibrium long run relationship between these macroeconomic factors to fluctuations in Indonesia's export value, this is evidenced through several stages of statistical tests, but conversely there is no disequilibrium in sort run relationships meaning value real exchange, investment and inflation have no effect on the short run relationship to the value of exports, this is evidenced through the results of the cointegration test and error correction method (ECM) test, where all variable data are not stationary and not cointegration and the results show are not significant.
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    ANALYSIS OF THE FACTORS AFFECTING TRADE BALANCE IN INDONESIA
    (International Journal of Psychosocial Rehabilitation, Vol.24, Issue 02, 2020) Laksono, R. Roosaleh; Saudi, Mohd Haizam Mohd
    Which means that Indonesia's export value has decreased and imports have tended to increase. While the Indonesian domestic currency (IDR) has depreciated against several other currencies including the American currency (USD). In theory, it would be explained if the currency of a domestic currency depreciates then exports should increase because the commodity of the country is competitive compared to other countries in the international market, whereas the government will limit imported commodities because imported goods will be increasingly expensive. This arises from the occurrence of research gaps. export value, import value, exchange rate and GDP on the trade balance, especially in Indonesia in the short and long term. The results of the study explained that in the long term for 35 years (1980 - 2015), referring to all independent variables (export value, import value, exchange rate and GDP) significantly affected the trade balance of 55.08 percent, while the remainder was explained by other variations that were not included in this research model. However, in the short term, the results of the co-integration test and error-error method show that all independent variables do not occur in the short-run equilibrium relationship with the dependent variable. All independent variables are inversely proportional to trade balance.
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    ANALYSIS OF THE INFLUENCE OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON CORPORATE PROFITS (Case Study at PT. Telkom)
    (Solid State Technology Volume: 63 Issue: 5, 2020) Rohana, Asep; Sumantri, Helmi Abyadi; Ansori, Muhamad Ihsan; Firdaus, Zulfikar; Laksono, R. Roosaleh
    The purpose of this study is to analyze effect of macroeconomics factors (exchange rate, interest rate, inflation and GDP growth) for profit of PT Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. for 2009-2019 period. The data that used is in form of annual secondary data for the 2009-2019 period. The result obtained after several statistical test in this study indicates that all four independent variables have simultaneous effect on dependent variables, while only two variables have partial effect which are inflation and exchange rate (IDR/USD) while interest rate and GDP growth have no effect to company’s profit especially on PT. Telkom. The result to investigate short term relationship equilibrium that used with error correction method (ECM) indicates that each independent variable which are exchange rate, interest rate, inflation and GDP growth show that all variables have no significant effect to dependent variable (profit). But simultaneously all these independent variables have an effect on profit in the short term, this is proven by the value of Prob. (F-statistic) by 0.041902. this value is bigger than α=5% which means accept H0.
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    EFFECT OF EXPORT, IMPORT, INVESTMENT &EXCHANGE RATE TRENDS TO INDONESIAN ECONOMIC GROWTH: Approach with Cointegration and Error Correction Method (ECM)
    (Journal of Advanced Research in Dynamical & Control Systems, Vol. 11, 03-Special Issue, 2019) Laksono, R. Roosaleh; Saudi, Mohd Haizam Mohd
    This research is intended to find out whether there are any effect of export (oil & gas), import (oil & gas), investment, real short-run relationship or long-term relationship ) affect the economic growth of Indonesia. To test and analyze in the short term that is by using cointegrasi method, while to test and analyze long term used method of error correction method (ECM). From cointegration result that has been done that, trace statistic value (198.6537757)> critical value 5 percent, besides value Prob. Sebsar 0,000000111 is smaller than α = 5%, so also with max eige stat (74.68590152)> critical value (74.68590152) besides Prob value. Sebsar 0,0000577 smaller than α = 5%, it can be concluded that in long term there is cointegration in equation model used in this research and equilibrium relationship between two variables (free and not free) in long term . Output result on ECM where all prob. free variable data below 5 percent alpha, this shows that there has been a balance in the short term unless the variable data of oil and gas exports does not occur in the short term balance of economic growth.
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    THE EFFECTS OF FLUCTUATION REAL EXCHANGE RATES ON THE BILATERAL TRADE BALANCE BETWEEN INDONESIA –CHINA: OBSERVATION CONDITION OF MARSHALL - LERNER AND THE J-CURVE PHENOMENON APPROACH
    (8th Widyatama International Seminar on Sustainability (WISS 2016), Widyatama University, 5 - 8, 2016-09) Laksono, R. Roosaleh; Novatiani, R.Ait
    This study aims to come to a conclusion as to whether there were effects of the real exchange rates on the bilateral trade balance especially in export-import sector and to prove that the Marshall-Lerner condition (for medium to long term time frame) was met, as well as whether the J- Curve phenomenon in the short term also took place during the 23-year trade period of Indonsia and China (1990 to 2013). The results derived from using the Error Correction Method within the period to exhibit a research gap: the exchange rate fluctuations did not affect the balancewhich in turn pointed to the conclusion of the absence of performance increase in the sectors. Several factors such as politics, social, and cultural issues contributed to the economic factors which sustained the condition
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    ENVIRONMENTAL PERFORMANCE OF FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE AND MODERATED ENVIRONMENTAL DISCLOSURE
    (International Journal of Psychosocial Rehabilitation, Vol.24, Issue 02, 2020) Rachmawati, Rima; Arnan, Sendi Gusnandar; Herawati, Shinta Dewi; Laksono, R. Roosaleh
    This study aims to examine the effect of environmental performance on financial performance moderated by environmental disclosures. The study uses the annual report data of companies engaged in the manufacturing sector, with the criteria for the report disclosing social and environmental information for the 2013-2015 periods and revealing the results of the assessment of the company's performance rating program in environmental management (called PROPER). The research method used in this study is explanatory research. Data analysis using the t-test and significance that was previously carried out the classical assumption test. Hypothesis answers show that environmental performance influences company profitability, environmental disclosure does not affect profitability, and environmental performance moderated by environmental disclosure influences profitability.